Parent Layer: Haines

Name: Haines - Max Inundation Line

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Description: In this report we evaluate potential tsunami hazards for the southeastern Alaska communities of Skagway and Haines and numerically model the extent of inundation from tsunami waves generated by tectonic and submarine landslide sources. We calibrate our tsunami model by numerically simulating the 2011 Tohoku, Japan tsunami at Skagway and comparing our results to instrument records. Analysis of calculated and observed water level dynamics for the 2011 event in Skagway reveals that the model underestimates the observed wave heights in the city by a factor of 1.5, likely due to complex tsunami-tide interactions. We compensate for this underestimation numerically by increasing the coseismic slip of the hypothetical tsunami sources in our models. Potential hypothetical maximum credible tsunami sources include variations of the extended 1964 rupture and megathrust earthquakes in the Prince William Sound and Alaska Peninsula regions. Local underwater landslide events in Taiya, Chilkoot, and Chilkat inlets are also considered as possible tsunamigenic scenarios. The results show that the maximum predicted wave height resulting from a tectonic tsunami is 2-3 m (7-10 ft) in Skagway and Haines, while the maximum landslide-generated tsunami may cause a runup of 15-16 m (49-52 ft). Results presented here are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in tsunami inundation assessment, evacuation planning, and public education to mitigate future tsunami hazards. Users can access the complete report and digital data from the DGGS website: http://doi.org/10.14509/30029.

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Copyright Text: This report was funded by Award NA16NWS4670030 by a National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program grant to Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management and University of Alaska Fairbanks from the Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This does not constitute an endorsement by NOAA. Numerical calculations for this work were supported by High Performance Computing (HPC) resources at the Research Computing Systems unit at the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks. Thoughtful reviews by Stephan Grilli (University of Rhode Island) and Richard Koehler (University of Nevada) improved the report.

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