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Description: Potential tsunami hazards for the Fox Islands communities of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor and Akutan were evaluated by numerically modeling the extent of inundation from tsunami waves generated by hypothetical earthquake sources and taking into account historical observations. Worst-case hypothetical scenarios are defined by analyzing results of a sensitivity study of the tsunami dynamics related to various slip distributions along the Aleutian megathrust. The worst-case scenarios for Unalaska and Akutan are thought to be thrust earthquakes in the Fox Islands region with magnitudes ranging from Mw 8.8 to Mw 9.1 that have their greatest slip at 30-40 km (18-25 mi) depth. We also consider Tohoku-type ruptures and an outer-rise rupture in the area of the Fox Islands. Results presented here are intended to provide guidance to local emergency management agencies in tsunami inundation assessment, evacuation planning, and public education to mitigate future tsunami hazards.

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Copyright Text: This project received support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under Reimbursable Services Agreement ADN 0931000 with the State of Alaska's Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management (a division of the Department of Military and Veterans Affairs). Some of the research in this publication is sponsored by the Cooperative Institute for Alaska Research with funds from NOAA under cooperative agreement NA08OAR4320751 with the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Numerical calculations for this work were supported by a grant of High Performance Computing (HPC) resources from the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center (ARSC) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. We thank Zebulon Maharrey for his help with the RTK GPS survey in Unalaska/Dutch Harbor and Akutan and Amy Macpherson for her help with the cartography. We are grateful to Douglas Christensen and Natasha Ruppert for their help in assessing potential earthquakes in the Fox Islands and for sharing the data with us. Thoughtful reviews by Rob Witter (USGS, Alaska Science Center) and Hong Kie Thio (AECOM) improved the report.

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